A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."